the low-down

It’s a good time to be studying politics in the Middle East. We’ve been lucky: protests that are largely peaceful, no violence that I’ve heard of—though the newspaper I work for is largely under the thumb of the Jordanian mukhabarat, and it's not impossible that if the government was taking a violent stance against protesters we'd be the last to say anything about it.

This week King Abdullah has made trips to Bedouin camps in Jordan--securing the base, I guess. Really, though, I don’t believe the government here is in any danger of real overhaul, given Abdullah’s popularity—both genuine and loyalty-induced. Black Iris says the same (http://www.black-iris.com/2011/01/23/jordan-is-not-tunisia-understanding-the-status-quo/). (Note: I love this blog, and it's a lot smarter than I am.)

That being said, the unrest that does exist in Jordan—and there’ve been weekly demonstrations since I got here, including one earlier today—has been the work of the Islamic Action Front, an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, that has a political base in Palestinian Jordanians, and hasn’t been thrilled with Jordan’s relations with Israel since the peace accord in 1997. Issues include: rising food prices, unequal employment opportunities for many Palestinian citizens, and peace ties with the United States, given that the US’s economic and diplomatic relationship with Israel.

The Islamic Action Front is very present on the Jordanian political scene, and has stayed that way by staying quiet. But now that the Muslim Brotherhood has officially joined the party in Egypt, and it looks like a second Middle Eastern leader is on his way out of power, who knows what reforms could be on the way for Jordan, fueled by the other recent successes? Demands: to be able to vote for prime minister, instead of having him be appointed by the King. Really, this is pretty reasonable, in contrast with Egyptian and Tunisian demands.

Reform in Jordan would mean louder voices of its Palestinian population. Could it mean a Jordan that takes a stronger hand in dealings with Israel? But the United States would never let that happen—and Jordan is tied too closely, economically, to the United States, to risk diplomatic ties. Maybe.